Forecast
Discussion for Today and Tomorrow (Day 1 & Day 2)
Issued At 5/16/2012 - DISCUSSION AND FORECAST: Issued on 16 May 2012 at 0726 by M. Padovani
Lingering weak frontal boundary draped across the coastal plain will focus some convection today but not much - as only weak land/bay interface wind circulations being the only trigger for showers/thunderstorms for us this afternoon. Satellite loop insinuates we'll see sunshine mixed with clouds today. Mid/high clouds over us this morning result from thunderstorms over eastern NC/VA. Upper trough also moves through the Great Lakes, pushing a cold front across us tonight. Most model guidance does not give us any measureable precipitation but a slight chance is there - especially this evening - for a shower or thunderstorm. Winds switch northerly as High pressure builds across the eastern Great Lakes and eventually the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow and Friday. Sunny, cooler, and less humid air mass will dominate our weather the rest of this week.
TODAY (WEDNESDAY): Partly sunny with only isolated showers/thunderstorms after noon, in the afternoon, warm and humid, high 83°F, wind light and variable becoming SW-W at 5 MPH during the afternoon. Becoming cloudy with a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm this evening, then skies clear after midnight, low 53°F, wind SW-W at 5 MPH in the evening becomes NW-N at 6-12G17 after midnight.
TOMORROW (THURSDAY): Mostly sunny and pleasant with a light breeze, high 72°F, wind N-NNE at 7-12G19 MPH decreases to 6G11 MPH in the afternoon. Clear skies overnight, low 49°F, wind NNE at 6 MPH in the evening becomes light and variable after midnight.
REMARKS: Bay breeze will limit off post noise focusing through much of the morning…minimal focusing expected toward the E this afternoon.
Extended
Forecast Discussion (Day 3, Day 4, & Day 5)
Issued At 5/16/2012 - DISCUSSION AND FORECAST: Issued on 15 May 12 at 1751 by G. Luft
"High and dry" are the best descriptive words I can find, in a nutshell, for APG weather beginning on Thu for this forecast period. A cold front exiting APG Wed evening is followed by High pressure building in across the Great Lakes early Thu that centers over the northern Mid-Atlantic states (NY/PA) on Fri before shifting to New England Sat. Slightly cooler but much less humid air makes for comfortable conditions and near seasonable temperatures all three days. The High's center egresses slowly off the New England coast by Sun, but still maintains the surface Ridge down across us to maintain generally fair, dry weather for us through Sun. Near surface winds swing around to an easterly direction by Sun that allows some maritime moisture to come in not far above the surface. Enough moisture should filter in to produce some low clouds in the early morning hours on Sun, but this moisture should burn off with strong May sunshine dominating our skies. Surface humidity increases more on Sun than Sat, but still should be at tolerable levels for outdoor activities this weekend.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny and continued pleasant, high 76°F, wind NNE at 5 MPH becomes ESE at 5 MPH by mid-afternoon. Fair skies overnight, low 52°F, wind turns light and variable after sunset.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny, high 77°F, wind becomes SE at 7 MPH by the afternoon. Fair skies in the evening turn partly to mostly cloudy late at night, some light fog may form towards sunrise, low 54°F, wind SE at 5 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy skies early turn mostly sunny by early afternoon, a little more humid, high 79°F, wind SSE at 4 MPH early increases to 7 MPH by the afternoon. Fair skies in the evening turn mostly cloudy late at night with some light fog again possible towards sunrise, low 57°F, wind SSE at 5 MPH.
